Thank you, Tulvio Durand, Paul Levy, and Baird Soule for your responses on ESV/TDW/etc. valuations. In turn, let me respond to each of you separately.
First, Tulvio. You write: A MM whose judgment I respect had this to say. "When great fundamentals don't mesh with a poor-looking chart, trust the chart. The chart is trying to tell you something -- i.e., something's wrong, keep away."
Your MM may be right on the mark there. All kinds of nasty skeletons may be rattling around in a seemingly well-managed company's closet, which we "ordinary" investors don't hear about until it's too late. There's no question but that the Big Guys have much more inside info. about a company than the small (employed) investor, who has neither the time nor the resources to keep close tabs on all the stocks he/she owns.
On the other hand --- there is such a thing as "bad karma." Stocks often have it. Nobody wants to get stuck with a dog. And if a stock LOOKS like a dog, it often IS a dog, because nobody wants to buy it because it LOOKS like a dog (although it really, on its merits, should be a good investment). A self-perpetuating cycle, as it were. (It's like boys, who never want to be the first one to ask a particular girl out.)
On the third hand, isn't the point to make money, not to be loyal to a deserving, if unrecognized, company? Who is going to appreciate that loyalty?
No wonder I have trouble making sell decisions!
jbe
|
