I've always been a little skittish about "tops", as I lived through so many bear markets. I still remember 1970 to 1972, with the Dow bottom at about 695. I was enjoying the 1968 run at 1000, then in 1970 again... then the bottom fell out, mostly due to inflation creeping in from the Vietnam war, and Nixons troubles.
As a result, I stayed out most of the following years until 1982, when I liked Ronald Regan as a leader so much.. it was a great time to buy. I was convinced of a top in 1987, and sold out by the end of August. That was fun too.
The last few years though have been too good to believe. As a result, I have been 60% in corporate bonds, and have manages to do just fine. I still expect deflation. That results in higher bond prices yet. This should be good for stocks, but earnings really can take a hit with increased competition. Asia is just too good a producer to be ignored.
So that leaves me hedging a bit, and yet this market can still run up. It all depends on how many boomers are going to jump in. I remember one commodities genius who calculated the progressive amounts of money needed to lift the market another 10%. Only the banks can decide when to stop financing this market. Banks tend always to overdo it. Remember them lending tons of money to western farmers to buy more land? .. then after it crashed, they went and kicked the farmer off his land and sold him out...
interesting times.. |
