Jafco,
Thanks, but I am not interested in "spot" prices. What I whish to know is where the "spot" price will be in 2, 5, 10, 30 days. I say again, thank you. I appreciate all advice. I also appreciate good sites on the web.
Looks pretty dark for the unconventional dirts here, huh? Everything is going to hell in a handbasket!! Do you think that I believe that? Hell no, this is the time to be a buyer in relative terms. When you hear that the "Stock Market" just cannot fail to go higher, then be a seller, and conversely when you hear that "x" cannot go anything but lower, let your ears pick up and be ready to change your strategy, but beware the timing. Things flop around alot at the tops and bottoms and your could be killed by the fluctuations.
Most stocks (lots of exceptions) move in rather simple fashion. The simplest is a simple trendline from low to high, then trend break then lower, then trend break then higher. This is very simplistic, but a powerful tool that must not be forgotten. Trend followers are mostly very successful investors. The problem for them is that there are lots of swings and they get whipped around alot. The more successful ones wait for the trend to clearly establish itself, then jump on board. Since they cannot predict with any great accuracy, they must be involved in lots of trades and depend on being right more than wrong. They as a group are very successful.
I wish to say to you again that the simple trend line is a very powerful tool and can be employed with great success. It diserves great study and improvement by individuals.
As a trend develops and breaks, and this is more sophisticated, often one finds that the support levels in the uptrend become resistance levels on the downtrend and conversely. Certainly it is much more complex than that, but not so much so that it is incomprehensible by the simplest mind. I wish to mislead no person here, just encourage all to look with their own perception and tell me what they think about what I am saying.
Certainly, following trendlines with coffee might be difficult, but look at as an example (compaq computer, CPQ) over the last 6 months and tell me what you see!!
Bigmouth, Jack!!
P.S. I encourage you to look at the chart for CPQ and make your projections as to its future price movement. You can tell me what you think and I will tell you what I see. This is not just for Jafco, but for all. |
