Dylan,
Here's some updated SSS figures based on what Robinow said at AK (per Edible) and the 1Q '97 unit by unit revs that Paine Webber put in last Springs analysis.
Yours:
Woodfield 263
Gurnee Mills 185
DisneyWorld 724
Tysons 246
South Coast Pl 330
Source 350
Down Chicago 578
Grapevine 314
MGM Grand 550
Estimates:
Mall of America 300
Sawgrass 246
AZ Mills 300
Aventura 150
Animal King 0
Palisades 50
Selected updated ones from the AK conference based on the same 12.5% after tax profit margin as you are using:
Woodfield: 12.5% of $2.5 million = $313,000 opposed to $263,000
Gurnee: 12.5% of $1.95 million = $244,000 opposed to $185,000
Disney: 12.5% of $9 million = $1,125,000 as opposed to $724,000
MOA : 12.5% of $2.4 million = $300,000 BINGO!!
MGM: 12.5% of about $5 million = 625,000 as opposed to $550,000
Downtown Chicago: 12.5 of $2.8 = $350,000 as opposed to $578,000
(If you recall we spoke of the possibility that the new receipt roll started with 10000 instead of 00001 when the Downtown numbers came up so high. If so then each ticket would be worth more like $45-50 in revenue. Also as disney does a much higher percent retail each Disney receipt should be around $55-60 in revs. With that in mind I think we have a GREAT predictive vehicle here)
Regards,
Dennis |
