another opinion gleaned from vector vest. mixed message re buy recommendation and other parameters (eg overvalued/growth rate) most of the info is hindsight info and maybe be extraneous noise, but here it is for what its worth.
anyone care to express an opinion re the following?
vectorvest.com
Stock Analysis of Novatel Inc.
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Novatel Inc. from
VectorVest ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for Novatel Inc. is
NGPSF. NGPSF is traded on the NASDAQ.
PRICE: NGPSF closed on 27-Mar-1998 at $10.40 per share.
VALUE: NGPSF has a Value of $8.20 per share. Value is the
foundation of the VectorVest system.It is a measure of what a stock
is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth
rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial
performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an
important role in the computation of Value. When interest and/or
inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and
inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a stock's Price
and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): NGPSF has an RV of 0.75. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 0.75 is poor. RV reflects the long-term price
appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative
investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings
above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an
RV greater than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its
Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are
above average. In some cases, however, a stock's RV will be above
1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This happens when a
stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and an
above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is
currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future
earnings growth to drive the stock's price higher. This information is
very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable
price appreciation potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether
to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently
achieve above average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): NGPSF has an RS rating of 0.47. On a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 0.47 is very poor. VectorVest looks
at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying
stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one
who is lending money to the company). From this perspective,
consistency of financial and operating performance, stock price
appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in
the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio,
capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are
also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are
rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than
1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A
stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than
the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): NGPSF has an RT rating of 1.59. On a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 1.59 is excellent. RT is a fast,
responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the
direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over
the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price
performance of the stock. Once a stock's Price has established a
strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term.
If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should the
price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point.
When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a
Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above
1.00,the stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's
Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): NGPSF has a VST-Vector rating of 1.08.
On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 1.08 is fair. VST-Vector
solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks
with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks withlow
RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with
the best combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares)
handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single
indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database.
Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of
Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above
average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): NGPSF has a GRT of -1 % per year.
This is very poor. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate
in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock.
Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock's
Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will
increase more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): NGPSF has a Buy recommendation.
REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters
working together. These parameters are designed to help investors
buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid
or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's
price is approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal
when the stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high.
High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and
sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: NGPSF has a Stop-Price of$ 9.60 per share.
This is $0.80 or7.7% belowits current closing Price. VectorVest
analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing,
and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are
based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are
fine-tuned according to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H"
recommendation if its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S"
recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): NGPSF does not pay a dividend. VectorVest
focuses on annual, regular, cash dividends indicated by the most
recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock
dividends, etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): NGPSF has a DY of 0.0 percent. This is
below the current market average of 1.2 percent. DY equals 100 x
(DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): NGPSF has an EY of 6.17%. This is
above the current market average of 4.75%. EY equals 100 x
(EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a
percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): NGPSF has an EPS of $0.64 per
share. EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share.
VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent
earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year
earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): NGPSF has a P/E ratio of
16.21. This ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E
= Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): NGPSF has a GPE of -0.06.
This ratio suggests that This ratio suggests that NGPSF is
overvalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock
valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price
Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when
GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa. VectorVest believes that
RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 0.75
for NGPSF is poor.
DS (Dividend Safety): NGPSF has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0
to 99, a DS of 0 is poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular
cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates
for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a
scale of 0 to 99 areabove average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): NGPSF does not pay a dividend. All
stocks in the VectorVest system that pay dividends are classified as
having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with
DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are
classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS
values below 50 are below average in safety and are classified as
having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): NGPSF has a DG of 0 percent per
year. Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a
company's historical financial performance and the board's current
outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): NGPSF
has a YSG-Vector of 0.00. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an
YSG-Vector rating of 0.00 is very poor. VectorVest combines
Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter.
YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks.
Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector values have the best
combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the
stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term
growth.
VOL(100)s: NGPSF traded 283700 shares on 27-Mar-1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: NGPSF has an Average Volume of 57656.
Average Volume is 50 day moving average of daily volume as
computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: NGPSF had a Volume change of 392.1% from its 50
day moving average volume.
OPEN: NGPSF opened trading at $10.10 per share on
27-Mar-1998.
HIGH: NGPSF traded at a high of $10.80 per share on
27-Mar-1998.
LOW: NGPSF traded at a low of $10.10 per share on
27-Mar-1998.
CLOSE: NGPSF Closed trading at $10.40 per share on
27-Mar-1998.
% PRC: NGPSF showed a Price change of 3.0% from the prior
day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: NGPSF has been assigned to the Instruments
(Measuring) Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190
Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
NGPSF has well below average safety with well below average
upside potential. It reflects a stock which is likely to give well below
average,inconsistent returns over the long term. |
