TOKYO -- The Japanese people, the world's most prodigious savers, are about to put their $10 trillion portfolio -- fully one-third of the globe's savings -- under new management, and Wall Street and millions of investors may be among the biggest beneficiaries.
Dennis,
This is fantastic news. I wonder how many people knew this was happening. It should ensure a continuing bull market in the U.S. for a period of time. And, it could push the DOW over 10,000. I'm thinking of revising my estimates up a little.
Nevertheless, in the longer term, ill winds may be blowing. To wit:
Dateline February 14, 1999.
The U.S. markets yesterday saw the greatest decline in history, with the DOW falling over 2,600 points to close at 6,789.91. The close was up about 260 points from the low of 6,531.38 as a number of brave investors decided to buy, hoping that yesterday's sharp decline represented the bottom of a sagging U.S. market.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government, reeling from the sharp fall of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, was defending it's decision to close the markets and the currency exchanges 3 hours early, despite the mid-day rally.
Japanese government officials were complaining that the U.S. government should not have stopped its citizens from selling their rapidly falling U.S. securities. They said that the U.S. government's action represented a slap in the face of many Japanese who had invested in the U.S. markets in good faith. The officials demanded that the U.S. government allow its citizens to divest themselves of the obviously overvalued U.S. stocks. They also stated that they would take action to prevent Japanese citizens from ever again investing in foreign markets, particularly when such markets were already overvalued. This official statement by the Japanese government is expected to send U.S. markets in a tailspin. The S&P 500 futures are already down over 50 points in overnight trading following the announcement. When will it end?
The above scenario will not happen, but what does happen when the Japanese have invested billions in the U.S. market only to see it substantially correct? I wonder?
Sam
P.S.
I remain very bullish on Apple, particularly in light of this news, but I caution that if Apple breaks down out of its present trendline, then all bets are off. Apple is a trendy stock and breakouts are almost always meaningful. |
