L.Shadow,
thanx for Your suggestions. I know how important time factor is, so I do not want to waste Your precious resource.. Let me comment on the stocks You described also..
AT is average risk IMHO - comm industry currently enjoys a premium, so this could climb higher.
ANAD is in an interesting industry, RF products for wireless & telcos. From my own research I think the competitors are: SPCT, PWAV, MPDI, ANAD, RFMD. When You do fundamental research & compare the PSR ratios of the four You will notice:
1) staggering order patterns by customers (telcos and wireless infrastructure deployment)
2) market is going to boom especially with CDMA segment (perhaps 20-30% annual growth til 2000-2005) - which is a divergence signal in light of current valuation of the whole group - could point to a good investment opportunity
3) AFC shortterm impact sent many stocks of the group down from September/Oktober valuations peaks
4) Industry PSR is at approx. 2
PE ratings are surely distorted due to shortterm impact of AFC and the staggering demand patterns. This makes it difficult to asess viability of the investment
5) most stocks of the group came down and were more than halfed in price, looks like a general investment opportunity
6) Some (RFMD, SPCT, PWAV) will most probably remain stagnant til the end of the current earnings quarter - either they already issued a warning - pertaining to current quarter or are likely to miss.
PSR Ratios are somewhat divergent:
cheapest: MPDI & SPCT (PSR < 1,5)
around 2 PSR: ANAD, PWAV
more expensive with regard to PSR: RFMD
My own strategy is currently to enjoy MPDI runup. I may however swap that with ANAD, PWAV and / or SPCT later (this or next month). All 3 companies are expected to undergo special charges this quarter, resulting either in losses or breakeven. The conference call and broker upgrades might provide us some clues..
best wishes
CROSSY |
