John,
I was surprised that that Lehman report had no discernable effect on the stock Friday. End-of-Quarter shenanigans -- I'm surprised that the Q ends on Tuesday the 31st and we haven't seen any blatant "SELL MICRON NOW" quotes from the big boys (*).
One indication of a bottom forming is when bad information, news or downgrades has little or no effect on the price of the stock. You may want to re-evaluate your short and especially PUT positions. April PUTs appear to be carrying a high premium with only 3 weeks to go. With no downward movement in the stock the PUTs start to rapidly bleed and those 1 point premiums start to bleed down to nothing very quickly.
If MU is at 29 now with negative earnings, what might it be worth if 1999 is projected at breakeven or slightly positive? If all that is required by PC manufacturers in 1999 is 64mb SDRAM, that must meet PC100 requirements, and Korea does not have the capability to produce significant quantities to meet demand(as they did with 16mb EDO) what will this do to 64mb SDRAM pricing and MU's asps?
Now that you are a MU earnings expert, Without being sarcastic, what gain would YOU expect on each PC100 64 mb chip (over the production costs) that MU would need to yield $2.00 per year EPS? $1..$2..$3...$10 and is it feasible?
If MU was going to show a profit in 1999 or later, when do you think you, as an individual investor, would find out...and if you were told, when would you start believing it...if ever?
Would you be sticking to those shorts and/or PUTs or selling them to go long or buy CALLS?
When do your palms start to sweat and you become uneasy and nervous because MU is moving in the direction you did not expect? Do you double down on your bets like SKEETER with the MUPGs, with plans to hold them until expiration, or do you begin to realize that MU isn't doing what you expect b/c you may not know all the fundamentals affecting this stock...or you know and heard them but just don't believe them? When do you start cursing MU out b/c you are not making the money on MU you expected to make?
Just curious:-)
DavidG |
