Haim: you might want to look at Ed Yardeni's econ forecasts.
He shows durable goods orders dropping 4th quarter, residential fixed income going from 17.2 to -0- next year, real disposable incomes dropping to -0- next year, book profits halfed by 3rd quarter, personal savings up by 3rd and 4th quarters then dropping, unemployment increasing after this quarter, truck sales dropping, home sales dropping by next year, bond yield dropping, and the U.S. lapsing into negative GDP by the end of next year.
It's not a pretty sight. But some of the indicators seem to conflict, like a fairly stable level in home sales while unemployment increases.
The amount he shows bond yield dropping suggests that it's already priced into this market, but the drop in profits has not. So I don't know how much of that can be absorbed by foreign acquisition, M&A.
If you believe his forecasts, it's the time to move from stocks to bonds.
His past track record is impressive. |
