TAVA potential:
I talked with a number of the companies I deal with about the embedded systems issue and what they are doing about it. Not surprisingly they are aware and they are doing something about it.
Across the whole market some companies will be early, some average and some late to address the problem. My discussions, and other info on what is happening confirm that we are a reasonable way into the cycle.
If TAVA was going to be even bigger ($150m+ y2k earnings implied just at the current stock price) then I figure that by now, the early companies - pick a number, 10%, 20%? - would have awarded some big, big embedded systems y2k contract.
And if TAVA was 'the only game in town' as we here so often, they would have received the lion's share, or a good part of those contracts.
So the obvious question is, how come y2k revenues for the last quarter were $1.7m?
My view, FWIW is that
1. TAVA is not the only game in town by a long way, as the companies doing this work take on more contracts they build up information and experience anyway.
2. The revenues TAVA can make are nothing like as high as many believe.
DISCLAIMER:
1. I believe that y2k and embedded systems is a serious problem and will require substantial efforts/$ to fix.
2. TAVA appears to have good offerings in this area.
3. I am short this stock.
And if you have read this far, in my experience when people start talking nonsense about a MONSTER BUYER, well.... just *be careful* that's all.
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