Reb,
Thanks. I believe you are right. I was running some calculations and my best case scenario with an ARM will save me $3500 over the fixed rate. (1 year at 6%, 11.5 at 7.5%)
My opinion of the most realistic scenario has me loosing $5500 over the fixed rate. (1 at 6%, 1 at 8%, and 10 at 8.675%)
My pretty bad, but not doomsday has me loosing $7000. (1 at 6%, 1 at 8%, and 10 at 9.0%)
The problem is without historical data on 30 year Tbills, I have no way of guageing my opinions. I ask myself, "how likely are my scenarios?" I answer, "ummm, I don't know."
Since it seems your likely cases are worse than my worst cases, I guess that means my decision is weighing even more towards the 30 year fixed. BTW, how long you been in the business?
Thanks,
-Allan |
