Good Evening Henry, CLK OFF Topic ECU
Thank You for your very interesting and thought provoking reply.
I spent Sunday morning with a gruff old gentleman now in his 80's, who
was a Lincoln Scholar from Nebraska and spent many years teaching european
and American political science....
I read him Mundell's article (he is now blind, but quite sharp) and also
your posts to this thread. His reaction to Mundell was quickly put...
"Haahh...he's mostly a politician, always eagar for a good story...."
His responses were very similar to yours. The ECU will become a viable
currency only after an extended period of nervous gesturing by many of the
players, but it will take a good many years to evolve. As you, he felt
that politics were being used to assuage the gold players and the
demoniterization of gold would continue. That unless a crisis required
a golden anchor, the central bankers and politicians would choose floated
currencies. His biggest concerns were for the fixing of the floating
rates within the ECU countries and abilities to weather the bickering
of the 'elite's'. They are such an old and structured part of the european
power base.
He also believed that serious consequences would evolve if the ECU became
stronge and excluded other parts of europe, such as the Russian block of
emerging economies as Yugoslavia and those of Turkey and Greece. If in
the years ahead these states were not included - war would be inevitable.
Turkey was of particular concern....if Turkey were to be continuously
turned away, this would signal a protectionist ECU and cause enormous
tensions in the ethnic and economic balance of greater europe. He also
believed that Nato should not become the quardian of the ECU....again
another signal of exclusion and protectionist tendencies....
I added to this conversation by extending the subject into the future.
It was conjectured that the ECU would become a significant success and
therefore would pressure Japan into forming its' own currency block along
with Hong kong, China and the Indo block. I felt this was an inevitable
and natural extension of the present state-of-affairs in monitary expansion.
That there would be 3 broad-band currencies in the world in 15 years.
All sharing a similarity with todays Yen-Mark-Dollar balance.
Let me end by adding that this old Army Colonel walked or rode a jeep from
North Africa to Sicily, to the Beach at Anzo, up the spine of France into
the Battle of the Bulge and many other major conflicts. One of his most
bitter memories....of that walking....being one of the first officers to
enter and liberate Dachau.
He has a particular interest in the ECU....
He wishes our generation would pay particular attention to the "unexpected."
That shifts -- in todays 'environments' of currencies, international
politics, trade, commodities, economics and demographic-ethnic developments
all appear to be moving to a rapid conclusion, but in fact are the result
of history and are moving very slowly......
Technologies have narrowed our focus, but old problems of an intergrated
europe may not come so easily, may not follow the paths layed out for them.
That the seeds of division in europe will not go away easily.....even
with broad and significant economic prosperity.
It was an interesting few hours spent with an old Lincoln Scholar.
Chip
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