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Strategies & Market Trends : TA- Advanced GET

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To: Temple Williams who wrote (949)	3/30/1998 12:47:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) of 1551

Temple---My experience has been that when the market finally breaks out of a W4 triangle, it does so with a strong thrust with ALL of the pullbacks very shallow, which suggests that it is not easy to clearly measure w(ii) and w(lv) along the way. When the thrust finally breaks down (the correction becomes deeper), it turns out to be all over. So, the risk is very high in staying in a thrusting one way market when it is the 5th out of a triangle 4. Need to use regression channels with tight stops. You may well be correct that we will eventually see those preverbial 'much higher prices' yet again--but my sense is that we may first have to revisit 7000 ish to recharge. At the moment, everyone's on one side of the boat---sort of like lining up outside of the banks to buy gold at 800 several years back. Favors is looking for the mid-9000's this run but of course in this game it is a bit like beng in the full elevator on the 88th floor anticipating that the elevator when it dips will open on the 87th floor and let everyone go to the washroom before getting back on to go up to the 90th floor. Those with "1 more strong upmove to come" itis (because one's count says 3) may get clobbered if it turns out that his count was wrong and it was really a 5 . In a thrust with all pullbacks minor throughout the entire 5w sequence, it is often quite difficult to determine when you are at the top of (iii) or the top of (v). There are already a number of divergences set up in the thrust since the latter part of Jan. Are we in a (iv) now? I have no strong feeling one way or the other. But i do sense that the time is near to leave the party long before Abbey taps us on the shoulder and says she is turning cautious.

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