Bob & Hawk, although this may seem to sound like an idiotic statement, I'm not sure that 1996 has any relevance to 1998. I believe that investor ignorance (sounds awful, but as one definition goes 'the state of being unlearned') and attitude, is completely different. We had some significant dips last year which were warranted. But the individual investors stepped in and bought cheap on the market price weakness. This has turned out to be justified. In fact, the chance of the market reacting negatively to anything as long as we are in the first part of the year, is questionable, because investors think the market will quickly bounce back. However, once fund managers have reached their desired goal for the year, I believe they will sell the market out. Something I learned last year was that, whatever happens, the market will always find a reason to sell (justified or not). However, whilst theres so much liquidity and the mm's are behind the market with 75% of the year still to go, I don't believe it will happen.
Basically, the same goes for AOL. Unless there is some bad news, and AOL stops producing good news, any price dips will be seen as a buying opportunity. They are also seen as the premier internet stock - and the internet and e-commerce are the ultimate speculators dream as the boundaries for growth aren't readily apparent. There's limited use in us looking at TA or fundamentals for this stock because it hasn't traded off those for a long time.
I also think that shorting this stock is a speculative play. Why ? Because I have thought this and other stocks such as Amazon have been great shorts 40/50/60 points ago. Of course the natural instinct is to think that if only these stocks would turn, the downward movement would be as spectacular as the profits, but, in retrospect, I personally have found these thoughts have been driven by the prospect of great possible rewards rather than the probability of it happening. I also think that the chances of it happening now are greatly diminished because a pattern has been well established.
Its all rather fascinating, and, after being long in this stock to spite my own continually proven incorrect judgement, find myself rather drawn to buying more on weakness as I wrestle with rationalising what is happening.
Good luck to all of us!
Stephen |
