My current play is based on time rather than price. The
time of my entry corresponded nicely with the end of the
violent up-move that began on December 19. My intention
is to close out the short on touches of significant price
points on the graph -- 28 is, this 29 stuff wasn't -- and
re-enter a day or two after, on the sucker bounce. My
final target is the two-year low of 16, or June 1999,
whichever comes first.
I am buying upcrash protection in the form of OOM calls
of 10x my short position, whatever strike price I can get
for 1/8. I begin looking on the Monday that is two weeks
before option expiration. I fully expect that these
calls (typically 2 strikes OOM, bought less than 2 weeks
before expiration) will expire worthless every single
month until April 1999.
Micron's "return to its core business" (read: selling
itself off piecemeal) is not a plan for growth. The
near-panic blizzard of upgrades from December to February
was the Last Dance at the Bag-Holder's Ball. Fundamentals be dammed -- they correspond to the decline and target I expect in this down-leg, but I am trading this move from 36 as though a lot of money and effort was spent to move it there, as the company was losing two million dollars a day during the entire period. I don't need to go on about Goldman, the multi-thousand contracts of calls, and Abbey Cohen again.
This low-volume stuff at 29 is just a waiting game.
Hence my counseling of patience the other day and in
recent posts. Remember that graph that Skeeter showed us
about two weeks ago? The rise in MU didn't shake out
shorts, it attracted them. In droves, and at better and
better prices. |
