I think the only part left is tracking FV to see if programs hit.
As Jim would say, people rely a lot on information. You might listen to CNBC say that programs just hit. Maybe CNBC gets this from a floor trader or maybe they get it from someone else, I don't know. Actually I don't care. Once the program hit it is too late to do anything about it. More profitable is to anticipate a program and it's direction.
For example, if you know FV is $10.00 (to take a number), but all morning the bias has been slightly south of $10 then you might be predisposed to believe that programs, for the time being, would have a bias to be sell programs. But where are they going to hit?
Well I suppose that you could just go short and wait for them, but they may never hit. Several people, including Hank, determine where the PREM should cross to create a program. So watching PREM provides a clue.
Anyway, unless you are running off a live feed all of this becomes impossible. I've noticed quite often when I am on the phone to Chicago, making a trade, the trader on the other end gives me a fill precisely where the market is ticking on my machine at the moment. If you have ever seen the way the S&P futures jump around like Mexican jumping beans you would know this is pretty good. You should not have much delay with respect to your data. Otherwise, very little of this will do you much good. |
