Perhaps the AOL shorts are the closest I can come up with.
It's funny you should mention that, because I've been thinking hard about shorting AOL. (That thread is hilarious, by the way. Hawk, peacelover, and Bald Man from Mars have an ongoing dialogue where they commiserate with each other on their losing short position).
I've been thinking lately about the similarity between AOL and Apple. There's an obvious analogy: AOL is to the Internet as Apple is to Wintel. Similarities: AOL and Apple have proprietary technologies, they're facing a faster-growing, open-standards competitor, they have strong brand recognition, they charge slightly more, ease-of-use was their strongest selling point, and they have integrated a degree of compatibility with their competitor into their own technology. Differences: Apple's technology was superior (and will be again), while AOL's was inferior; AOL marketed better than Apple, and went after market share early in the game; and Apple's user base is fanatically loyal, while many AOL users hate the service.
It'll be interesting to see how AOL does. My view is that, for technical reasons, they won't be able to keep up with the Internet, and will eventually crash--unless they can migrate their user base somehow to the Internet, while keeping those users semi-captive. Which, interestingly, is somewhat similar to Apple's Rhapsody approach.
Right now we're in this early period where most people don't even realize that AOL isn't really an Inernet company. The differences between the platforms, and the importance of those differences, hasn't become clear yet. I see that as a huge investment opportunity.
Have you ever been long or short AOL?
rhet0ric |
