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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)

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To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (207)3/30/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Prophet  Read Replies (2) of 1153
 
I would wait a few days, even a couple of weeks, before I go on dumping all my money into HMAR. The truth of the matter is that there are other undervalued oil companies out-there that have NO bad news. You may see HMAR drop some more.

As per today's market reaction to the OPEC meeting, the results were somewhat expected. There isn't anything new coming out of that meeting that we don't already know. So, the outcome can only be worse than what it was last week. That's why weak speculators are selling today. That's good news! We would have less speculators and more real long term investors driving this stocks.

We all know the history of OPEC when it comes to adhering to oil quotas. The situation could become worse now that non-OPEC producers production reductions are key in insuring that oil prices go up. We have a situation where OPEC's members (40% of world exports) cannot be trusted to uphold its quota agreements, while on the other hand we are betting that non-OPEC members (holding 60% of the market)can be graceful enough to adhere to their pledged reductions.

The bottom line is that the only news that would move these oil stocks are movements on the per barrel price. Until that $17-$18 per barrel barrier is broken we may not see any positive movement at all. We would have to wait until actual production cuts take effect. The $2-$3 per barrel price movement is all artificial since the supply remains high. Come May-July, you may actually start seeing big price movements on both the per barrel price and the stock prices.
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