David - I am still not trading MU at the moment, but holding puts
for maybe the next couple of weeks.
Looking at Larry's MU Channel, and extrapolating the chart, and
if MU were to remain in the channel, April 17th range looks like
a low of 25 3/4 and a high of about 30 1/4.
Looking back to the MU chart period of April to July 96, I see the
following:
1. MU reported .87 earnings in Mar 96, $5.11 trailing 4 qtrs.
2. MU reported .27 earnings in June 96, $4.98 trailing 4 qtrs.
3. MU had a peak at 39 on 4-25-96, and had a steady decline
similar to the present, until 7-10-96. At that point, it broke the
downward channel to the downside, hitting 16.63 on 7-24-96.
4. The earnings are far worse now than in the 96 period, just
ask Skeeter. <gg>
Questions:
1. Was the 96 July dive just part of the tech sector dive?
2. Is MU about to increase the channel on the down side?
3. Is MU seeing improving earnings and info 6-9 months out
that we don't know about yet? My data supports Larry's
comments that MU stock price normally preceeds the fundamentals
by 6-9- months.
4. Why was MU at ~17 in July 96 when earnings were 10 times
better than the present? 44 million shorts supporting it?
Just food for thought.
Patrick
PS - David, I spent a lot of time this weekend looking at LSI and several other techs. Looks like LSI has lost Firdays up spike. |
