I can't tell you if it's time to buy. What's the discount now?
This fund has traded at a premium at times, and seems to be
well-managed. I did well with it over the last year (buying
under 7 and selling at 9 3/4 and 8 5/8 (thanks to "MMV" for solidifying
my resolve on the lower sell, and Mike Burke for initially
turning me on to IFN, although I didn't follow his buy/sell
points necessarily), but I have worries
about a renewed round of Asian crisis, accompanied perhaps by
further drop in the rupee. But I think India needs to move
towards freer markets, and BJP doesn't seem to be putting up
strong resistance. The article you linked involved a
limited (three-year) timeframe, and limited industrial sectors,
and seemed to represent a toning down of previous policies
(not entirely unexpected, though). Another article in the same
issue of "business standard" (disclaimer-- I don't know this
publication from peanuts, which is only a reflection on me, of
course) makes it look like they plan on freeing up various areas
dominated by government owned enterprises
from restrictions on private-sector activity---sounds good.
I'd bet India is going to continue to move towards greater market
efficiency and a more dynamic economy---slowly, with lots of
corruption and graft along the way to be sure, but representing a
great opportunity for those who remain invested there over the
next 10-15 years.
That said, I will probably wait for another round of Asian turmoil
before getting back in.
Howard |
