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Strategies & Market Trends : BFT: Will the tulip craze ever break down?

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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (206)3/30/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa  Read Replies (1) of 650
 
Fasten your seat belts!

In the Q4 results press release in mid-february there was no mention of membership activity in January, my guess if that business wasn't that hot and that investment/expenses in new exciting business opportunities should continue well ahead of revenues. This should call for a poor quarter devoid of any significant growth in revenues/improved profitability that would justify current valuation.

However, if you are short and plan to remain short (as I plan, I would recommend you fasten your seat belts. Based on the creative accounting we have seen to date (e.g., Q4/1997 results), the auditing background of several members in the BFIT management team, the history of lax accounting for revenues/extraordinary charges, I would not be surprised to see them meeting expectations. One thing I can tell you: the stuff that matters (cash flows) should continue to be highly negative....

Pancho

PS: Creative accounting has it limits, in the long run business potential does show up. Remember RAYS, still holding the dubious honor of being the largest Sunglass chain in the USA...
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