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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics

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To: Wayners who wrote (397)	3/30/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (2) of 927

Analysis at close on 3/30/98. Updated AMAT through XCIT. All commentary is at the time of the last signal received except for some of the notes I've inserted. I've found it best to open a position long or short AFTER receiving a signal and closing the long or short position IN ANTICIPATION of a signal. That locks in the most profits for me. NASDAQ Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Not a real commanding break up today (3/19). I think I would ignore the signal. Slight uptrend and the volatility is increasing to the upside. (30 Mar note--still sticking with the trend for now.) ADPT Last signal sell short on 26 Mar. AMAT Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is still up, but with this one I don't take chances. AMD Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Showing an uptrend. Volatility is low and can really increase a lot. I think AMD is a good one at least through earnings on 7 Apr. (30 Mar. note--this one paid off big today.) AMGN Last signal sell on 16 Mar. (25 Mar note--Getting close to a buy signal on very strong uptrend.) AMZN Last signal buy on 30 Mar. I'm expecting a significant break upwards and increase in volatility. Volatility is very very low right now. AOL Last signal buy on 23 Mar. Good solid uptrend still. (26 Mar note--stochastics crossed below the 80 line--I'd sell tomorrow to lock in profits.) ARX Last signal buy on 10 Mar. ASA Last signal buy to cover on 19 Mar. Volatility is getting really low. (30 Mar note--very close to a sell signal). ASND Last signal buy to cover on 19 Mar. Trend is still down. Look for next opportunity to short. (30 Mar note-Still close to a sell signal if you bought on 20 Mar. Its up agains the $38.00 resistance too.) AVM Last signal buy on 30 Mar. Narrow bands and really low volatility. Still a bias for an upside break. Nice whipsawing effect. An upside break goes to $15. A downside break goes to $12. AVNT Last signal buy on 25 Mar. Real good uptrend. (26 Mar. Doesn't look right. Any further price weakness and I'd dump it. Looks like $20 resistance level and long term downtrend may do this rally in.) BBIOY Last signal sell short on 27 Mar. In a downtrend and volatility is very low. BMY Last signal buy on 20 Mar. Good solid uptrend and increasing volatility. (26 Mar note--not acting real good but at this point I'd still stick with it. Any more price weakness and I'd dump it.) BNYN Last signal sell on 30 Mar. Still in an uptrend but looks like a good place to pick up profits for a less risky play. Still in an uptrend and volatility is very, very high--which means a good chance for a countertrend drop in price. CADE Last signal buy on 20 Mar. Volatility set to increase. Will see at least $2.75. (30 Mar. note--this thing has really moved up on the 20 Mar. signal--currently at $3.00. Very close to a sell signal, but not yet I think I would anticipate the signal and just sell it here before it drops any more. Very high peaked volatility--Countertrend drop is likely.) CBIZ Last signal sell on 23 Mar. Still in a good uptrend. High current volatility. CDRD Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Good safe exit point at $25 which is the upper resistance point. Either sell or write the $25 calls. CEXP Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Neutral trend upside potential to $10.50. CFON Last signal sell short on 27 Mar--can't do under $5.00. Can look at puts. Still on a solid downtrend. CIEN Last signal sell on 18 Mar. Stochastics peaked today and give a sell signal. It was up against the resistance at $50 anyways. Did a real nice run from $45 to $48 using the signals. Look for next buy in opportunity--because of the uptrend or sell the $50 calls for Apr. (25 Mar. note---very close to another buy signal on the uptrend.) CKFR Last signal buy on 26 Mar. There was that long awaited signal. The uptrend is still intact. Remember there is still resistance at $24 to $25. (27 Mar. note--not good action today on this stock. Any drop below $21.25 and I'd exit the stock. Volatility is set to increase too so it doesn't look good. First support would be at $20.) CLST Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is neutral so I'm thinking short play. The uptrend has completely run out of gas. The volatility is low too and is set to increase--most likely to the downside. COMS Last signal sell or sell short on 27 Mar. Neutral trend. Cover at bottom bollinger band--$32.50) CORR Last signal sell on 13 Mar. CORX Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Can't short under $5. Consider $5 puts if they are available. Support at $1 9/16. (neutral trend and decent volatility). CPQ Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is slightly up which is positive. I think you can buy back in at a lower price however. CTXS Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Real good uptrend though. I think I would ignore the signal.. CYBR Last signal buy to cover on 30 Mar. The trend is down. CYMI Last signal sell or sell short on 30 Mar. Very narrow bands making it unpredictable and getting us whipsawed. Probably the beginning of the big now -to the downside. CYPB Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Very stong signal. Nice uptrend going. First resistance at $3.00. Uptrend increases chance of breaking past $3.00. DELL Last signal buy on 25 Mar. (30 Mar. note--very close to a sell signal.) DIMD Last signal buy on 26 Mar. Anticipating the buy signal yesteerday would have paid off today--real good move today. (27 Mar note--very poor price action today. The uptrend is still intact however, so I would be ready to bail yet.) DSYS Last signal buy or buy to cover on 26 Mar. Neutral trend but good volatility. Upside resistance at $8 1/4. DWRX Last signal buy on 27 Mar. This has been in a long consoldiation period. Now we're looking for an upward break. EFII Last signal buy on 26 Mar. (30 Mar. note--now in a slight downtrend making long positions riskier.) FONR Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. Only problem is its under $5.00 and is not marginable. No play. GDT Last signal sell short on 27 Mar. The trend is down. GERN Last signal buy on 20 Mar. Slight uptrend going. Volatility likely to increase to the upside. HD Last signal buy or buy to cover on 26 Mar. HRSH Last signal sell or sell short on 25 Mar. More getting whipsawed. The volatility is so low and the bands are so narrow I have no idea which way this thing will break for sure, but now I'd give it a downside bias. IDTC Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is still up and it was an upday from the open. I think I'd ignore the sell signal until I see what it does tomorrow. . IHS Last signal buy on 23 Mar. Good uptrend as it goes to a higher level. IIT Last signal sell on 26 Mar. I think I'd ignore the sell signal. Good uptrend and volatility picking up to the upside. IOM Last signal buy to cover on 30 Mar. Still in a downtrend. Probably forming a base at an important support level--the old $14 level. IRIDF Last signal sell on 26 Mar. (26 Mar note--I had this one as my weekly pick for the game on the APM thread. Picked up 14% for the week. I closed the long positon at the close today.--30 Mar. note this stock won me the game for the week.) JLG Last signal sell on 24 Mar. Decent uptrend makes me question how good this signal is. KLIC Last signal buy to cover on 25 Mar. Still in a downtrend. LCCI Last signal sell on 24 Mar. LSI Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Looks like the beginning of a trend so I think I'd ignore the sell signal. LTBG Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Good solid uptrend. LTXX Last signal buy to cover on 26 Mar. Slight downtrend. MAIN Last signal sell on 20 Mar. Up against resistance at $4.00. Good solid uptrend. Look for next opportunity to buy in. See how much the $5.00 calls are selling for. (30 Mar. note--very close to a buy to cover signal.) MEDA Last signal sell on 23 Mar. Support at $10.50. MIND Last signal sell or sell short on 24 Mar. Slight downtrend. (26 Mar note--that signal on 24 Mar looks brilliant now with today's devastation of MIND.) (30 Mar. note-very close to a buy to cover signal.) MPDI Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Its right at the $7 resistance level too. MSFT Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Still strong uptrend. MUEI Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. Good downtrend and peak in stochastics. A break below $11.25 goes to $10. NORT Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Time to take profits. NSCP Last signal buy or buy to cover on 25 Mar. Its been forming a base. Not a solid breakout yet. NTBK Last signal sell on 25 Mar. In a very strong uptrend. (30 Mar. note--about to give a buy signal so ignore the 25 Mar. sell signal. The volatility is decent. Getting decreasing stochastics tops so I'd expect the trend to slow down within 3 to 4 weeks.) ORCL Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Still a good uptrend. OXHP Last signal buy to cover on 23 Mar. PNDA Last signal sell short on 30 Mar. IN a downtrend and can't short under $5.00. Can look into $5 in the money puts though. They'll move dollar for dollar with the stock price. PRMS Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Real good uptrend and very high volatility. Not for the faint of heart. Resistance at $30 from the current $27.50. (30 Mar. note, I bought the Apr 25 calls today in the money for $3 1/8. They've already moved up to $3 1/2 by $3 7/8.) PSIX Last signal sell on 30 Mar. Still a solid uptrend, but time to take profits or write calls. QCOM Last signal buy on 25 Mar. Looks like its completed its base forming. Jump on long. QWST Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Slight uptrend. PSIX Last signal buy or buy to cover on 25 Feb (neutral trend). REMC Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Very slight uptrend. Not much of a break up. The volatility is really low and the bands are really narrow. RIG Last signal sell on 26 Mar. RMBS Last signal short on 30 Mar. In a downtrend now. SFY Last signal sell or sell short on 25 Mar. Neutral trend but decently high volatility. SHVA Last signal buy to cover on 23 Mar. SMOD Last signal sell short on 17 Mar. Support at $20. SOCR Last signal buy to cover on 30 Mar. Still in a long term downtrend, so I think I'd ignore the signal. SUNW Last signal sell short on 17 Mar. Its up against strong resistance at $45 on a downtrend. I don't think its got the muscle to get past it. I still think its a good short. It closed right at $45 on 19 Mar. SYNT Last signal buy on 18 Mar. Still in an uptrend, but it isn't as strong as it was. Look for a break past $37. (30 Mar. note--very close to a sell signal.) TDFX Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Good uptrend play. (26 Mar note--very close to a buy signal.) TMAR Last signal sell or sell short on 25 Mar. Its in a neutral trend with resistance on the upside at $21 5/16. Cover short at about $18. (26 Mar note--surprise upmove today--cover shorts its starting an uptrend--go long.) TMX Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Still on a good uptrend. Look for consolidation. Volatility is up against resistance at the upper band. Another sell signal on 25 Mar if you missed the first sell signal because of the strong uptrend. TRBO Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. On a good downtrend. (24 Mar note--looks like a stop out as TRBO was sitting on support at $7.50) TSSW Last signal buy or buy to cover on 27 Mar. Under $5 stock. TTRR Last signal sell or sell short on 30 Mar. Neutral trend increases the risk of a short here. UEIC Last signal sell on 27 Mar. VECO Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Good uptrend. I think I'd ignore the signal for now. VLSI Last signal buy on 25 Mar. This could be the beginning of the rally I was talking about. Volatility set to increase. (27 Mar note--still not moving upward. Going to take some patience.) WCII Last signal buy on 16 Mar. WTT Last signal buy to cover on 26 Mar. XCIT Last signal buy on 25 Mar. Decreasing volatility doesn't make this a very attractive play. (26 Mar note--very low volatility--next move will be a good one.)

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