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Mike, I am very negative on the net pcs for home use and very positive
for business use. For home use, I think we are going to have to see
leadership by Sony, Nintendo, Sega or somebody of that ilk who really
knows what the home buyer wants. However, in business, I see two
processes going on. First, there will no longer be a choice of
very expensive upgrading or sitting still. There will be an across the
street to the IBMs and Compaqs and Hewlett-Packards of the world. That
will force these people to cut their fat, fat margins to stay alive,
and even that may not help. Also, it will have the effect of giving
businesses a look-see period before they buy. If there were no thin
client pcs on the horizon, some with Microsoft and Java
crapola in them, they
might buy into the Pentium Pro/NT 4.0 flim-flam. But, with a cheaper
alternative likely to be available soon, you have to be an awfully
secure boss to sucker in today at these prices. I think a lot of MIS
people and maybe even their bosses will have a lot of 'splainin' to do
when $500 boxes do the jobs they paid $2000 for 6 months previously.
So, I see a combination of eventual tough competition and current foot
dragging as the thin client contribution to the pc disaster. I do know
we are going to see a sea change on pricing for business pcs and it will
not be a pretty picture for the current price gougers. MB |
