All: 3Gen Info from latest EE Times :
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The Perils of CDMA
Forget the Perils of Pauline; it's the Perils of CDMA that is the cliffhanger of
the day in the wireless industry.
After several dark years of failing to live up to its promise, Code Division
Multiple Access (CDMA) and its creator, Qualcomm Inc., appeared late last
year to be breaking into daylight and solid profitability. Then Korea decided
to have a financial crisis. Korea is particularly important to CDMA and
Qualcomm, because the San Diego-based wireless company gets as much as
35 percent of its profit from its Korean business. Wall Street reacted by
pounding Qualcomm's stock.
Then came sensational reports that PrimeCo Personal Communications L.P.
was scuttling its $500 million CDMA work with Motorola Inc. This news was
followed by the inevitable speculation that more CDMA contracts would fall,
and by the inevitable downgrading of Motorola stock.
So it was back to the doghouse for CDMA.
What's really going on here?
CDMA continues to have its growing pains - growing agonies might be a
better way of describing the situation. But such is the way of all things
wireless. Wireless technologies seem particularly fraught with horrific start-up
obstacles and difficulties.
In Japan, Motorola has two CDMA contracts each valued at more than a
billion dollars - one with DDI Corp, the other with Nippon Idou Tsushin
Corp. Both appear to be on track. A spokesman for DDI said: "There are
always many problems before launching [a] new system, but we are solving
them."
At this writing, Motorola hadn't lost the PrimeCo contract and had been paid
for most of the work. The firm's exposure, if any, from the controversial
contract is likely to be more of a public relations issue. The situation is
reminiscent of the flap several months ago when MTEL's initial move into
two-way paging was accompanied by numerous startup difficulties, some of
which were attributed to Motorola's paging infrastructure. In time, Motorola
and MTEL solved the difficulties and the paging service has been thriving in
recent months. If CDMA wireless follows the timeworn time line of other
wireless technologies, then the PrimeCo service will eventually work as
promised. It's just business as usual in the wireless-technology field.
Qualcomm has shipped more than 10 million CDMA chip sets and software
packages, and market researchers predict there will be 50 million CDMA
users next year. That's still a fraction of the personal-communications-services
(PCS) market, but CDMA's market share is growing. CDMA has superior
strength in transmitting data, because it assigns codes and runs its data at
variable bit rates, ultimately using bandwidth efficiently. With data
transmission looming as the NBT - the next big thing - in wireless cellular
transmission, CDMA is neatly situated for the coming third generation of
wireless broadband transmission. Today just one percent of cellular digital
traffic is estimated to be for data.
The line in the sand for third-generation wireless is still being drawn and
although the battle lines are vague, the order of battle is shaping up as the
mother of all wireless wars. All sides will use one flavor or another of
CDMA.
Two international standards have been emerging in recent weeks. The
WB-CDMA standard was backed in Europe, which is parlaying its
resounding success with the GSM second-generation standard. Although
GSM's specifications aren't generally as robust as CDMA's, the standard has
been remarkably workable throughout Europe with the result that
manufacturers developed advanced systems and users have been able to
roam with good service on a single phone throughout Europe.
In the United States, the second-generation PCS standard is still struggling
and wireless phone users are confronted with a confusing array of older
analog systems and with digital GSM, CDMA, and TDMA systems. While
the PCS equipment has more attractive features than analog, PCS can still
disappoint - its paging reach is weak, and often there are roaming
difficulties. There's even a growing low-tech problem for PCS - many
communities have resisted the placement of antennas in their open spaces.
Older analog systems have countered the PCS challenge by lowering prices
and, of course, sheer inertia has been a factor for users who aren't bothering
to upgrade to PCS. U.S. users are understandably confused.
What's been lost in the chaos of the various wireless architectures available
today is the promise of tomorrow's third-generation systems. That promise is
illustrated in a proposed third-generation wireless scheme put forth by five
powerhouse North American companies - Lucent Technologies, Motorola,
Nortel, Qualcomm and Sprint. The companies have announced that by 2000
they will test their vision of third-generation wireless that is based on the
"evolution of cdmaOne," the version of CDMA promoted by the largest
North American wireless companies. They plan to make the version
compatible between the second and third CDMA generations.
What's particularly intriguing about the planned 3G is the predicted leap in
data speed from today's 14-kbit/second range to "several megabits per
second." Those speeds would open up wireless devices to Internet access
and multimedia applications. In addition, this proposed North American 3G is
planned to be backward-compatible with second generation cdmaOne
technology.
"Our goal," said Al Kurtze, chief executive officer of Sprint PCS, "is to trial
this technology no later than 2000 and quickly move to commercial
deployment."
The European 3G, which is expected to take hold in Asia as well, could beat
the U.S. standard to market, although since their WB-CDMA scheme is
different, it's unlikely the European-Asian combine will impact the North
American market. Japan's NTT Docomo, the country's largest wireless
operator, has long been developing to the WB-CDMA standard and is
thought to have a head start with the technology. In North America the hope
is that the third generation will bring order and robustness to its frenetic
market. Otherwise U.S. mobile users will end up continuing to covet
European mobile phone systems.
As the third-generation environment unfolds over the next few years, the
much-maligned CDMA will surely emerge as a sort of generic platform, the
wireless glue of the airwaves. And, there will surely be plenty of start-up
agony accompanying CDMA. |
