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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa
KLIC 46.75+0.6%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Dr. Bob who wrote (2775)3/31/1998 12:17:00 AM
From: Dr. Ronald Peter Hellendall  Read Replies (1) of 5482
 
Thanks Bob/Don.

I suppose my lingering doubt (in a 'contrarian' sense) regarding this sector is the overwhelming herd mentality which, in the current environment, is manifest through consensus pessimism. Are we not schooled that it is precisely these supposedly fleeting moments when valuations approach levels (Klic is about to enter the single digit PE realm) that under any other market period would be viewed with awe?

And we are also being told this time is different... and worse. The seriousness of this slump may indeed may be of historic proportions. The sector cycled down in 1996; if Infrastructure and other industry watchers correctly estimated the length and depth of the valley on that occasion, they deserve our ear.

Alternatively, the Infrastructure article, and the lead article in SI last week, may be the personification of hindsight doubling as foresight. To predict the start of a trend requires insight and nerve; to reinforce the momentum of an existing pattern, as these articles do, is more mundane and is certainly less likely to observe and correctly interpret the early signs of recovery.

When dealing with an industry that has been one of the most nimble in adapting to economic and technological forces, it would seem most prudent to listen for the tiny voices of change rather than the thundering tumult of the trend.
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