If your investing horizon is 4-5 years, your thoughts are exactly correct, IMO. KLIC doesn't have too much lower to go (perhaps 20%), and perhaps 9 months max before it turns up. When it does, it will be easy to miss the same 20%. Even Infrastructure and other pros have great trouble calling the bottom. Cary Salsberg called the 1996 bottom, but he hasn't been posting lately, and missed the 1997 top.
However, if your investing horizon is 6 months, there are a lot of sectors and stocks with a better story than this one. Even if this is the bottom, as evidenced by the doom and gloom, the upside potential (in the next 6 months) is not much more than the downside risk of 20% or so. So I'm out for the moment, but watching closely, and when the sector turns, this is definitely one of the top 10 stocks to be in - market share leader, good management, high barriers to entry, etc.
The one kicker in the interim - a buyout, which gives you some upside potential even on the darkest day!
Bob |
