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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (17299)3/31/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
It looks like the selling has paused for awhile at least. I think the direction from here will be very hard to call. It may drop further, but many of the offshore drillers have already sold off enough that I think they have discounted most of the bad news and little of the good news. I don't think a retest of the lows is likely, simply because the oil producers's cutback has taken a bunch of oil out of the system and it is unclear at this point what kind of demand will be present as the driving season begins to kick in. Unless oil prices freefall, I'm not sure that there will be enough fear to drive driller prices down a lot more.
As I've said before, I think the uncertainty that is prevalent at the moment is likely to shift toward bargain-hunting, particularly around earnings announcements. Though the land drillers may have problems, the offshore drillers should all have strong reports and reassuring conference calls. I think many will again be caught off guard by the move up simply because there are so many looking for a point to buy in on the drop. It's hard to time, so I'll be using an averaging down approach to accumulate more along the way.
good luck,
Baird
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