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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting

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To: Al Serrao who wrote (2104)	3/31/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Ms. X	Read Replies (1) of 34811

Bonds futures gave a sell signal and momentum has turned negative. It suggests that rates could be moving higher. The Dow Jones 20 bond average is the key. It has not reversed yet but watch it carefully. When it does it will require close attention. The money supply rose $23.6 billion in one week recently. M3 is up 9.2% in the last 12 months. When evaluated over the last 6 months the rate is 10.3%. This is one reason there is a major boom in real estate we have been talking about for the last year. There has also been over three trillion in wealth made in the stockmarket since 1987. Even if interest rates rise it won't stop the real estate boom because boomers are buying with cash and have no need to mortgage. Inflation is an expansion in money supply and leads to higher rates. Asia was expected to slow the economy down and that would take care of the increased money supply. The economy hasn't slowed down and the gutless wonders in Congress are now poised to spend what ever surplus materializes further fueling the economy. Deflation is not the order of the day, inflation is what we need to watch. The long and short of it is watch the Dow Jones 20 bond average. It will signal the change. Tom Dow Jones 20 bond average: Current reading - 105.22 106.0 ----+---------------2 ------------------------+---------+------- 105.8 \| X O \| \| Top 105.6 \| X O \| \| 105.4 \| 1 O \| X 105.2 \| X O \| 1 Med 105.0 ----+---------------X O ----------------------+---------X ------ 104.8 \| C 3 \| C 104.6 \| X O \| X B Bot 104.4 \| X O \| X O A 104.2 \| B O \| X O X 104.0 ----+---------------X O ----------------X ----+-----X 8 X ------ 103.8 \| A O X O X \| X O X 103.6 \| X X X O X O X O 2 7 9 \| 103.4 \| X O X O X O X C X O X O X \| 103.2 \| X O X O X 4 B O 1 X O X \| 103.0 ----+-------X 7 --O 9 O ----------------X ----O --3 X --+------- 102.8 \| X O X O A \| O X \| 102.6 \| X O X O X X X \| O X \| 102.4 \| X O X O X O X O X \| O 6 \| 102.2 \| X X O X O X O 8 O X \| O X \| 102.0 ----+---X O X ----8 \| O --O --------X O X ----+---4 X --+------- 101.8 \| X O X \| 5 X 7 X O X \| O 5 \| 101.6 \| X O \| O X O X O X 9 X \| O X \| 101.4 \| X \| O X O X O X O \| O X \| 101.2 \| 6 \| O 6 O X \| O \| 101.0 ----+---X ----------+-------------O ----------+---------+-------

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