Passing the time....
Robert: As you might know, about eight months ago I elsewhere suggested that a target price of C$2.00 would not be unreasonable for Steppe. That was prior to the K&A acquisition, and my estimate was primarily based on the Mizek Project. At that time, I also factored in a reasonable allowance for the potential of increasing the reserves around Mizek and a favourable market response to Steppe actually having Mizek in production on schedule. The latter eventuality is fast receding. Without recalculating, I think your suggestion of C$1.30 is fairly reasonable. I really shouldn't challenge your calculations without doing my own again, but I will venture to suggest that as a straight valuation on Mizek alone on a fully diluted basis, it may be high. Nonetheless, something has to be factored in for potential--this is a speculative stock, at this point.
With respect to the longer term, Steppe's potential is immense. Again, and depending on the time-frame, I don't think your suggestion is unreasonable. There are so many possible variables, however, that I'm not prepared to offer a guess at the moment. Instead, I will offer a few observations about a factor that is very difficult to assign a value--management, and in particular, John Menzies.
As Marcos knows (and MICAP, for that matter), I'm not fond of psychological profiling. However, there is a term that I'm sure most people are familiar with: Type 'A' Personality. (Since it was introduced, that term has been un-packed, refined, categorized into components, and has provided no end of opportunity for psychologists to make a small fortune.) Without pushing the matter too far, I think we all recognize that some people are intelligent, knowledgeable in their fields, and are driven by a seemingly inexhaustible supply of energy. John Menzies strikes me as someone who has those traits and, more importantly, he enjoys the challenges of what he is doing.
If those things continue to hold and John avoids some of the potential problems sometimes associated with Type 'A' Personalities, Steppe has a very bright future, indeed. Some of those problems are things like heart attacks, but others may be far less dramatic. Some people have difficulty delegating--they are obsessed with complete control. (What John needs is someone like me to tell him what to do. Ha! That should get a rise out of him!) I am not aware that John has any of these less than salubrious characteristics. My impression is that as long as he continues to find Steppe's objectives a suitable challenge, he will continue to build this company. I think we'll all benefit from that, in both the short and long term.
Regards. |
