Crude Surplus Exaggerated?
First, I wish to thank all posters to this thread -- easily the best on the Web -- for providing informed, lively, good faith info. Well written, well thought out, cogently --and civilly -- argued etc., etc., and much, much more. Big smooches all around to all my oil-y pals, well, doesn't come close to reciprocity. Please, for the time being, accept this: Thanks, all.
On to business: I don't think it has been posted, so here's the oddest projection I've seen by any big house analyst. One Paul Ting of Salomon Smith Barney contended yesterday that the crude over-supply amounts only to 400,000 bpd "far below what he said was the 'popular oversupply belief' of 2.5 million bpd." This means, he continues, that spot oil prices will rise, even in the short term.
I know, I know...analysts, analysts. But in a sector where there's such a severe disconnect between perception (slashed drilling budgets, falling day rates, etc.) and fact (no evidence of either of the above), you've got to love this guy's stand. He's not only out on a limb with his take on the current supply / demand imbalance, he's off in his very own tree in an entirely different forest, out on a really, really slender limb. Anyone want to saw it off, as the market surely has?
Here's the url: biz.yahoo.com
Again, thanks -- a piu tardi, ci parliamo (spero),
ian |
