Ciena (CIEN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 194.70

+9.2%

Nov 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (1823)	3/31/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (3) of 12623

<< I'm trying to understand how the DWDM portion of the contract can only be 2% of the whole deal.I'm trying to understand how the DWDM portion of the contract can only be 2% of the whole deal. .>> So am I. $25-$35 million over 5 years? And half goes to LU? If CIEN only gets $12-17 million over 5 years and I was the CEO of CIEN I would have told Bell Atlantic to go fly a kite. I wouldn't have wasted my salesforce on such a small contract. <<.Clearly Ciena has received a second source status. Lucent, IMHO, is the primary supplier for this deal. >> It stated clearly in the press release that CIEN was allocated 50% of BA's WDM spending over 5 years. Later it says that CIEN and LU will "roughly split" the WDM portion. << I also believe that Ciena will only obtain a second source status with T. There again I would expect LU to get the major share.I also believe that Ciena will only obtain a second source status with T. There again I would expect LU to get the major share. >> What leads you to believe that LU will get majority share? I still haven't figured out how you arrived at CIEN becoming second source for BA. Even so, you may be right about CIEN becoming second supplier to T. AT&T will be spending several hundred millions of dollars on their upgrades. Just a hundred million or two for CIEN would satisfy me. I still can't fathom how the #1 RBOC could only spend on average $5-7 million/year on WDM. If this is true, perhaps the market for shorter-haul WDM is much less than first believed and I don't blame people for dumping CIEN's stock. If there are only 4 RBOC's aside from BA and they are only worth at most $5-7 million/year I will dump this stock too and apologize for hyping it up to everyone. CIEN better come up with a good explanation for this. I don't think 5 million shares is just a little portfolio allocating.

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