Christine, Hello!! Thanks for the kind words. I'm still here but have been rather discombobulated of late, though am not "The Late Mr Winn"!! Nor do I hope to be in the near future, though the Italian NAZI crowd have at times seemed rather vituperative towards the CDMA MAFIA crowd.
We are nearing a buying cusp with Qualcomm. Notice the lack of crowds, notice the demoralized tone of "Is this EVER going to happen? Probably not!!" Notice the low share price. Notice the extra six months market proliferation delay.
But notice the continued improvement of CDMA technology, the continuing expansion of licensees, the rapidly increasing rate of handset production, improvement in chip designs, software, infrastructure production, CDMA PCS providers all lining up their money and systems, notice half the frequency went to CDMA bids.
Then notice China [see the last two posts!!], Japan and Korea and count the people. There is a cultural obsession of USA with itself - an intrinsic belief that the core of the universe and all that is great and good resides somewhere in Peoria or The Capitol. But those Asian countries actually have quite an idea of their own importance too and what's more they have the numbers to back it up!!! So when they go shopping, there are going to be very large economic impacts worldwide. They are increasingly getting CDMA lined up. Korea has made it a national endeavour.
While I oppose governments "picking winners", the fact is that they have the power to distort economies and force resources into favoured areas. If the area happens through sheer good luck to be sound, it gives major impetus to that area. Korea could become the world leader in telecommunications through its emphasis on CDMA.
Japan is choosing CDMA so they will have the best technology and get the most out of their spectrum. They have the money to back their demands. Fortunately, Ramsey is on holiday in China, so I can make these lovely political comments with impunity!!
So it seems to me that there has been a fading of confidence, interest and hence share price although the facts are that apart from some more delay, developments are rolling on well. Nextwave has been held up on its IPO [Initial Public Offering], there has been much negative comment and so on, but nothing basic has gone wrong has gone wrong has gone wrong.............................
Qualcomm is going to get its quarterly results out in a couple of weeks. While good profits won't be there, everything is going to be looking very sound and people will realize that it is no longer a speculative technological startup, but a solid production company with a very big base of technical expertise and ongoing development prospects.
Sometime in the next 6 months, I guess the wide recognition of the reality of CDMA will be taking off. There have been several false peaks of hope over the past 4 years, with each peak of hope [and share price] being disappointed by the long haul needed to make it all work. So feelings have moved between awed adulation of "CDMA Tomorrowland" and the feeling of "Space Shuttle O Ring Failure!" With share price matching those feelings.
So now I'm back!
Yours in hope,
Maureece |
