I don't buy the cup-with-handle analysis being bandied about this thread. Much of the formation occurred below the 200 DMA, so any breakout is suspect. Also, we are looking down the barrel of the Mother of All Resistance Levels at 38-40. There are about 10 gazillion people dying to sell at that level. In my experience, the most predictable, explosive cup-with-handle formations occur with a breakout into or very near new highs, such as when the handle is only 10-15% below the old high. So, although we might go up a little from here, I'll be surprised if it holds, and it certainly won't be free run to 50. That'll have to wait until the 3rd Q or, more likely, the 4th Q.
One more thing -- some on the thread keep forgetting that ASND's earnings will actually decline, compared to the same Q the previous year, over the next two earnings announcements (1stQ and 2nd Q). Accordingly, even if the price remains stable, the PE will rise as the trailing earnings decline. After the June Q is announced, even if ASND beats the estimates for 1Q and 2Q by a few pennies each time, we'll be down to a trailing EPS of somewhere around .93-.95. At $38 a share, that gives us a trailing PE of about 40. That seems pretty fully priced, at least until the new ATM switches prove to be the "killer" products they are touted to be. Hey, I'm long on a pile of this stock. I hope they are the best thing since the invention of the milkshake.
All MHO, of course. This post isn't really directed at you, beach, but I just don't know how to send posts to myself. |
