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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 200.18

+2.0%

4:00 PM EST

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To: craig crawford who wrote (1827)	4/1/1998 3:21:00 AM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (1) of 12623

<<What leads you to believe that LU will get majority share? >> It's just my opinion Craig based upon what I've surmised. For example, T has already deployed around 1000 WDM systems. Did you know this? And as far as I know they haven't placed many if any orders from CIEN. So who else do you think filled these contracts? And if this is the case then that same vendor is likely to get the bulk of future orders also. My position on this BA deal is that LU is getting a seperate order for several hundred million for other equipment on top of the WDM gear so clearly they will have a much closer working relationship with the customer. It's not a big surprise since they were cut from the same cloth as BA anyway (just like T). Ciena can continue to make money by putting together enough of these small deals but the real money is flowing into LU's pocket. LU continues to be the better investment even though it's valuation seems way out of whack.

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