That entire article was predicated on an interview with Jeff L. Sadler
chief analyst for Equitable Securities, lead market maker of four for TSXX. To state that an ajenda and a degree of bias was operative there would be the understatement of the quarter. It was not the WSJ saying all those glowing things, they were just reporting what they were told.
I would also like to add that since TCI is a trend setter in tactics, and all the other cable companies usually follow close behind, the entire sector is danger of losing most of its domestic market any week now.
Malone's action was, in my opinion, not merely eye wash or temporary to get Moodys and S&P off his back, it was a caculated move and change of tactics based on all that is going on in many areas and "fronts" in the "Telecom Wars," and it is WAR friend. The results will probably be that the cable companies will avoid the MASSIVE capital expenditures of hundereds of billions of dollars to replace twisted wire with fiber optic, easement battles, the raging court fights, and be free to concentrate on their entry into Telephony, consolidation of satellite, set top boxes, and cable modems. With the one move he has unparalyzed an industry frozen for over a year at the mere thought of having to to create what amounts to a duplicate network of expensive fiber optics. Instead, with the new Telecom Law requiring Bells and the like to carry cable traffic, whatever it may be, and the cable entities having the where with all to send it faster than you or I will use for some time, Malone has thrown the problems squarely in the laps of the people who started all the arguing and foot dragging, the phone companies. He will allow MCI and Sprint to daily raise the temperature so that the Baby Bells will eventually be forced to go fiber to remain competitive, while he goes about the business and more that I have talked about above. The set top boxes being field tested right now will take care of the twisted wire. And when the phone companies are forced to convert to fiber optic, the cable modems will appear in finished form. It is a perfect example of winning by refusing to fight and I think absolutely brilliant. As far as the now gone need for switches and equipment, regrettably, all of TSXX's sector is no match, nor has the long standing business affiliations or proprietary technology that Lucent, General Instruments, SFA, et al do. TSXX's entire sector is at very real hazzard. I wouldn't look overseas for some long term relief either, they will want suppliers with the capacity to deliver in the quantities and with the timeliness they will require.
PS. The ANTC/TSXX acqusition may never happen, and if it does, it may be totally irrelevant to the fortunes of both companies.
Just some quick responsive thoughts! |
