April 1, 1998--The worldwide market for optical lithography steppers will reach $8.7 billion in sales in 2000, double the $4.3 billion in sales in 1997, according to the report Sub 0.5-Micron Lithography:Market Analysis and Strategic Issues, recently published by The Information Network, a New Tripoli, PA (formerly Williamsburg, VA)-based market research company.
"The stepper market has historically been the most volatile sector of the lithography market" according to Dr. Robert N. Castellano, President of The Information Network. "Whereas companies buy one or two sputtering machines, they will buy 10 steppers. When equipment sales bleed in the industry, the stepper market hemorrhages."
The worldwide stepper market grew 1.3% in 1997, compared to growth of all front-end equipment of 5.7%. Average selling prices of steppers increased 9.6% to $4.1 million, which accounted for all of the revenue gain. Unit shipments of steppers dropped to 1,045 in 1997 from 1,130 in 1996.
Nikon lead the worldwide market in 1997 with a 39.8% share on 450 units shipped, down from a 46.0% share in 1996. Canon had a 23.0% share on 260 units shipped in 1997, followed by ASM Lithography with an 18.7% share in 1997 on 211 units shipped.
Lithography is the single largest cost factor in semiconductor production. What's more, lithography costs have risen faster than overall costs because where it took about ten exposures to make a 1-Mb chip, 64-Mb units take 23 mask layers and 256 Mb require 27. In addition, critical resolution continues to drop. Where 16-Mb DRAMs demand 0.5-micron rules, 256-Mb chips must have 0.25-micron design rules.
The successor to 193 nm DUV lithography will be a substantial departure from standard evolutions in optical lithography since the early 1980s. Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) is being evaluated for sub 0.18-micron lithography. Particle beam column and system research is underway to understand particle interactions, error budgets, and manufacturing tolerances. These rays use highly precise, chemically-coated mirrors to focus the beams of light (optical lenses don't work with such short wavelengths). The average surface precision of the mirrors is within the range of the diameter of a single atom, or 5 Angstroms.
Today the industry may be entering an era of three tiers: mask aligners for critical DUV layers, critical I-line and non-critical
I-line. Critical I-line may be defined to 0.35 microns, 0.30 or even 0.28 microns using PSM or OPC. The purpose is to limit DUV lithography to 0.25 microns and below because of economics.
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