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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 327.03+2.5%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST
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To: MileHigh who wrote (18379)4/1/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: jtechkid  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
its a lot scarier being short than long-i'll tell you that. as i have stated i am long term bull but i predict eps will not be good in the shorterm-unfortunately its hard to predict how the market will react to stock prices-again, one of my big concern is everyone is discounting asai-that does not make sense since asia in technology represemts almost 50% business -asia is a small factor in regards to the overall maket but not in regard to technology where amat does 50%of its business. the problem with asia revolves around japan-its very scary over thier right now and you will see imo a recession maybe even a depression-the key long term it could benifit major tech companies that can survive but it will get very ugly simply because asia not buying that mich now -look at most of the semi's-at the beginning of the year semi's-who are awful in prediction-believe a turnaround would be the summer-now we are hearing 1999-amat book to bill will not be over 1 until fourth or first quarter mimimum-thats not a surprise,--i'm not covering my short but i made a mistake and should have cover in the low 30's when i had a chance. i agree a lot has to do with the market in interst rates but i'm still short term negative.
again i'm surprised at the aggressive buying these days-also wall street loves amat =optimisism is very high right now -wall street is usually dead wrong.
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