I N Vestor,
There are elements in your reply which I will buy; there are others which I won't; indeed, they seem to illustrate my point.
I agree (having listened to the cc & read the press release) that they promised to be more responsive in general, and, in light of their timetable, led us to expect something by the end of March. I too expected some sort of public statement over the past several days. I too am disappointed that nothing (favorable) was forthcoming. Of course, I know nothing of any promise DA might have made directly to you, although all else the same, such a promise sounds a tad imprudent...
But how to read this lack of a statement? I suppose we could take a glass-half-full/half-empty approach by ruling out the extremes. Suppose they had fully met their March goal; then we might have expected them to crow...but they didn't. Suppose they had failed disasterously and conclusively; then we might have expected them to announce so we would all take a bath & be forced to reevaluate our participation...but they didn't. Since no announcement was forthcoming, then my best guess has to be that they're close to their goal, but haven't quite achieved it within their March timeframe. In your words, they've slipped their schedule a bit. Disappointing, but hardly disasterous. After all, this is a startup in a technology which no one to date has mastered. Interpreting a schedule as if it were a contract instead of a guideline to their best estimates seems almost inevitably destined for disappointment. Calling them ##@$$'s whose word cannot be trusted seems at best mean-spirited.
Vis being a project manager: Were I their project manager, I would surely get more than quarterly updates -- and given the novelty of the technology, I would expect some updates to be pleasing and others to be disappointing. But I am not; I'm an investor. Not the same thing; different roles, different needs, different goals. And as an investor (one specie of stockholder), would I want them to release to the public every twist & turn of the project? No way! Of course there is the matter of not aiding the competition, but also there is the matter of not subjecting the stock price to the gyrations that would come of announcing one week's good news and the next week's bad news. A trader might welcome such volatility; investors don't need it.
So IMHO, you've got to decide whether you're a trader or an investor. If the latter, I counsel patience or selling. Later, if they deliver, you can always buy back in at a higher price -- once the company is no longer inherently speculative. As they all say, if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen... |
