(Addressed to all on thread)
I am a new "Dell long" (after having observed/researched the stock over several weeks including actively using SI)....Have enjoyed all participants' input...A few questions..
(1) Any ideas on a good entry-point (buying) over the next 2-3 weeks? (I know, I know, picking entry-points is usually not a (good) guessing game with most stocks, especially Dell, but please play along)....
(My thought is to) buy either (1) immediately or (2) wait until CPQ announces its lousy earnings in mid-April......
My thinking is that all comp. stocks (in sympathy) will take a decent hit after CPQ announces April 17(?)........ (on what I think) will be even worse-than-expected earnings/forecasts of future earnings/sales from CPQ....and then Dell will quickly bounce higher again.....and then zoom after May 20(?) earnings announcements....
My concern in buying immediately is that we are due for that (now-so-famous) market correction of 5-10%, I think it will come hard and fast and I think all stocks will get hit, especially techs, even thought I don't see a trigger (for it) in the next couple of weeks (analyst earnings expectations have been lowered so much that companies reporting should beat the estimates, liquidity still strong, etc).......On the other hand, one concern in NOT buying immediately is that a run-up in the next couple of weeks could negate/exceed any hit the stock could take from a bad CPQ earnings announcement....Staying on the sidelines without Dell can be an extremely bad idea (most of the time)
So, does one Buy Dell immediately or after CPQ earnings announcement?
(Or at the first 2-5% dip?)
(2) How does the current PE (51 or so) rate compared to the last 3-4 years.......i think that Dell has had such a PE (between low 40's and 70's) for most of the last 3-4 years, right?
(3) Anyone read the article on cnet about HP in which HP's Asia marketing head claims that a price war in notebooks is likely?
Any thoughts on how this could hurt Dell's margins in Asia/Asian growth? Overall? How frequently have "so-called" price wars broken out in the last 3-4 years in notebooks, business-user markets?......(I know Dell's management has frequently stated that this should have a minimal impact on business, but would like to hear from y'all nonetheless)
(4) Can someone explain to me why Compaq's net margins (last 6 quarters) have been 1-2% higher than Dell's? Is this due (solely) to channel stuffing? (and they are paying the price over the next couple quarters), or, if not, how are they beating Dell on the cost containment side? Should Dell have much higher net margins (given the J-I-T model)?
Sorry for the long msg, appreciate any and all answers to my questions...
JRINTL |
