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Biotech / Medical : ICN Pharmaceuticals

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To: Carl Wysocki who wrote (808)	4/1/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) of 1029

I agree with that IJF fellow on Yahoo, since he's me. The PE which you disagree with (its hard for me to accept easily) is from the statement in the Goldman Sachs report that ICN's faster growth rate justifies a PE 20% higher than the other drug companies. But what do I know, I'm no drug analyst. On the idea of a buyout. It seems to me that ICN becoming a major drug distribution firm in Eastern Europe and Russia, mitigates against a purchase by a major drug company. Would Merck want Lilly distributing it's products? ICN is really a non-threatening player to operate a distribution company and thus all the majors can deal with it and not be threatened. A lot of the value would be lost if a major player bought ICN. Therefore, I don't think it will happen if the distribution business grows to be the principal value of ICN. Two issues could put ICN in play. Loss of Panic (I think he would be difficult or impossible to replace) or a battle between Roche and SGP for control of Rebetol to use with their interferon A products in Europe (the last major uncommitted market for rebetol). Hope ICN stays independent. Think it is in our best interest. Time will tell.

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