I woke up this morning with a new perspective. I've grieved over my paper losses, and am ready to do the right thing. Perversly, if we are up big today, I'm buying. If we're down, I'll stay out for a while. (Now... is that buy high, sell low? I keep forgetting).
I forgot one big caveat to the Stochastics trading system, in an upward trend, the sell signals are no good. DOY!!! If we're down (which looks unlikely), then I lucked out and maybe will get a buy signal soon. If we're up, it's a confirmation of the uptrend, and I'd be a fool to stay out.
I've realized that when I'm invested and my stocks go down, I can console myself with the fundamentals argument (which is valid). But when I'm out, and the stocks go up, I've got nothing to console me except that I've learned another lesson.
This lesson I will not forget. April fools day is indelibly etched in my mind. I was probably right when I said this is IT. I was wrong when I thought I was wrong.
Wouldn't you know the first time I make a 100% bet on my trading system, is the first time it is wrong. (And I knew it could be wrong in an uptrend!) Time to suck it up and start investing. I may trade with a small percentage of my portfolio (which was my original plan), but trading with 100% and being wrong is definitely no fun. |
