Chip equipment orders to plunge
12% in 1998, according to SEMI
By J. Robert Lineback
GENEVA, Switzerland -- New orders for semiconductor
production equipment are expected to be about 12% lower in
1998 compared to 1997, based on new results from a worldwide
buyers survey conducted in March and released here today
during the Semicon Europa equipment conference.
Chip makers continue to remain cautious with their investments
because of a combination of factors, including the ongoing
fallout from the Asian financial crisis, Japan's economic woes,
slower revenue growth in personal computer markets, and
continued softness in DRAM prices, said Elizabeth Schumann,
senior market analyst for Semiconductor Equipment and
Materials (SEMI), which sponsors the trade conference.
New orders for semiconductor capital equipment fell 14.9% to
$4.848 billion in the first quarter of 1998 compared to $5.695
billion last year, according to the survey of system buyers with
33 major chip makers in the U.S., Europe, Japan and Korea. In
the second quarter, the surveyed equipment buyers indicated that
orders for new production gear would drop 12.6% to $5.326
billion compared to $6.097 billion in the second quarter 1997.
The March survey shows equipment orders gradually growing
each quarter in 1998, but the revenue values continue to lag
bookings last year. Orders are expected total $5.810 billion in the
third quarter, a decline of 11.2% compared to $6.546 billion in
the same period last year. In the fourth quarter 1998, orders are
now expected to reach $6.273 billion, which would be a drop of
10.4% compared to $7.003 billion in the final three months of
1997.
The survey showed a range of plans for equipment ordering,
according to SEMI analyst Schumann. In Korea, for example,
equipment buyers said they expect a 40% drop in orders for
production systems, while in North America respondents to the
March survey said they plan an increase of 12% in orders in
1998 compared to 1997.
SEMI has not officially revised its consensus forecast collected
from equipment and material suppliers, but Schumann estimated
that the total revenues for semiconductor production systems
could total about $26.8 billion in 1998 compared to $27.6 billion
last year. The trade group plans to update its 1998 equipment
shipment forecast in July, during the Semicon West conference
in San Francisco. |
