Wiley, For the most part, I hate regional banks. However, in this financial inflation, they are still takeover targets. So, they are in a contest between bankruptcy and takeover, and right now, takeover pressure is pushing the stocks. Most of these firms do not have the savvy to survive alone if Greenspan ever slows the torrent of money flows, so, I'd be very careful. They have run a lot already. John Hancock's Bank Fund (BTO), for example, was up 87 pct. last year. That looks like a top to me.
Cisco is a great company. The pe ratio is about double the growth rate, which is also slowing. That doesn't matter in this market where making estimates will push any sort of valuation, but it does matter longer term when sanity returns. I don't know what will happen to Cisco with Y2K, but my guess is it will not be a positive. I would avoid, but I would definitely not short it or buy puts. These guys have been in fundamental trouble before and they always got out of it with smarts. That makes for a lousy short sale, in my book. MB |
