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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 122.55+4.4%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: jim kelley who wrote (36261)4/2/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: Gabriel008  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
Jim & Patrick,

Since it's been pretty quiet lately [except for my LU] I've been whiling away my time doing some f99 estimates. Here are my numbers;

f99..........................Q1...........Q2...........Q3............Q4........Total

units.....................1550..........1725.......1975.........2275.......7525
ASP.....................$2575........$2575.....$2550......$2525......$2553
Revenue..............$3991........$4442.....$5036......$5744.....$19213
Income [7.7%]......$307..........$342.......$388........$442.......$1479
Shares [diluted].....702............694..........686..........678.........702
[existing buyback program only]
EPS [diluted..........44›............49›..........57›..........65›.........$2.11

The average weighted # of shares used for the entire fiscal has historically been close to the Q1 number of shares [diluted]. That's why you see the 702 in the total column.

The net income growth based on this model is 57% over f98 but due to the existing buyback program the eps growth is 65%.

Pipper Jaffray in their analysis believes DELL will come in around 1.6 million units in Q1. They may be expecting much more price erosion than I am.

With DELL's new & expanding relationship with Wang I wonder if & when DELL's Other Revenue will increase both in volume and as a percentage of total sales. Presumably, this Other Revenue will generate higher profit margins & will help reduce ASP erosion in future quarters.

Your thoughts would be appreciated.
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