Although you have asked Readware, some thoughts.
Although I know that Readware keeps saying there is no demand risk or issue, I think that is almost the only risk or issue. Always have.
I think launch risk is really pretty minimal. It's a timing risk. The sats are all insured. They can be replaced. Almost certainly, at least a few won't function perfectly. And therefore it is probable that startup won't really happen until a few months, perhaps a quarter, after projected time.
Which will hurt the stock a bit at the time, but its small potatoes.
If the demand issue were clear to all, the stock of Gstrf would be at least double its current price right now.
The demand question is entirely one of price. It is clear as day to me that if Globalstar could sell regional calls for $.10 a minute and long distance for an addition $.10 all over the world, demand who be astronomical.
At Iridf projected rates I'm skeptical. Sure there will be some demand, but will there be enough?? I really don't know.
At Gstrf's projected $1 to $1.50 (which really could easily go to $.75 of the local providers got a little less unjustifiably greedy, which I'm sure under the G* system they would if they had to to drum up sufficient demand), I'm pretty confident that there will be at least enough demand to generate a pretty nice share run up from current levels. And it could be huge.
But demand is the whole issue. The NY Times article, misleading or not, clearly shows that demand is what people outside of these Readware think dominated threads are worrying about. Not sat launches. It's clear we can do those, with perhaps a mishap or two. So what?
Which by the way has been my principal critique of Readware all along. And my repeated subject of inquiry to him.
Doug |
