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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 252.98

-0.2%

Feb 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Carmine Cammarosano who wrote (1867)	4/2/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 12623

does Ciena have a future against the likes of LU? I asked the very same question when both were trading in the 50s. Ciena seemed awfully expensive to me then for the distinction of being the only pure-play DWDM provider. As I researched the matter, I became convinced that LU was the better DWDM play because of the pioneering role they had in inventing the technology, their huge R&D budget (important in a new technology like DWDM), the capabilities of Bell Laboratories well-respected as the #1 telecom lab in the world, and the natural proclivity of purchasing managers to go with what are perceived to be industry leaders (LU) when making these multi-million dollar decisions . Nobody was ever fired for buying a Lucent system. Additionally, on a price/sales basis, Lucent was (and still is) selling at a substantial discount to CIEN. The concensus was that LU was too boring. Most people would seemingly prefer the excitement of betting on a long-shot racehorse than patiently researching an investment. Investing is a marathon, my friends, not a day at the racetrack. SC

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