I'm puzzled, how does a rational investor make money on a stock like AMZN?
Fact #1 - It's overvalued. So much so, there is no argument left supporting it's valuation. Conclusion: Once a stock is overvalued by lets say a factor of 5, then why not 10, 20, ... In that case buy it because you no longer have to worry about any fundamentals getting in the way. But as a rational person, you say "what if" fundamentals become important again, or more importantly "when". Fear and logic keep you from buying.
Fact #2 - Using the last 70 years of data about stocks, there is a 99.999% probability that it will go down at some time. Conclusion: Since this is pretty much a given, then I should short it, and given enough resources and time I will eventually make money. This decision might make you feel good because it is based on fundamental logic, but you fear #1. You hear arguments like all the insiders are bailing, and once the float gets larger things will be different. I did like the float argument, but that doesn't explain how YHOO (I think up to 29M), and AOL (don't know but huge) don't stop going up.
Well, I think I've answered my own question. AMZN, has no place in a rational investors portfolio long or short. It is however, a gamblers dream. |
