Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 163.32

+2.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: DaveMG who wrote (9583)	4/2/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (4) of 152472

Dave: Guess what, I have spent a bunch of time on this issue and I am about to give away the conclusion of all my hard work. The last few quarters have been relatively pure (i.e. the majority of L&R has been royalties), and subscriber counts have gotten large enough to venture forth with an estimate. Understand that since QC derives royalties from both infrastructure and handsets, and the former obviously precedes the latter, the company realizes infrastructure royalties prior to any material subscriber loading, which arithmetically produces a remarkably high royalty per subscriber :-). Therefore, royalties per subscriber necessarily should come down as the royalty mix moves from infrastructure to subscriber equipment. Bottom line, based on my calculations--which are nothing more then my best guess and unconfirmed by QC--the current steady-state royalty per sub is running in a range somewhere between $15 and $18. This calculation makes me smile (alot) particularly when I contemplate net CDMA subscribers additions of somewhere 20mm to 25mm range for fiscal 1999. Best regards, Gregg

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