BAY Ntwks (under House) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House)

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To: Bosco who wrote (5071)	4/2/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: Paul Fine	Read Replies (1) of 6980

I know the TA looks lousy right now. Losing another 1.25 pts on double the average volume of the past few days(but not much more than normal vol historically) is tough. However, only ASND and CSCO rose today among the major networkers. It would seem that is where the "smart money" thinks the strength lies. We are still within the narrow trading range I predicted two weeks ago($25.5-28.5). I also said we could see some fluctuation outside that range in the week before earnings are released(that would be early next week). The Soundview downgrade may accelerate the move by a few days, although today certainly wasn't any kind of panic selling climax. The downgrade was based on a few key assumptions: The Accelar GB has a very long selling cycle; the rest of the business is soft(as indicated in House's conf call two weeks ago); and csco will be in the market with their new products late this quarter. The first two assumptions are the acid test for Bay the next 6 months-- if Soundview is right then Bay will not make the record rev qtr they promised. Place your bets where you believe truth lies. Paul

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