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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 165.03

+1.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (9585)	4/2/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (2) of 152472

Gregg & Maurice, Gregg, Yeah,I was actually thinking that 10$ might be safe and reasonable but you've outbid me.Hopefully you're right, however I agree that the numbers must be frontend loaded. Maurice, Here's some numbers extracted from an article in Wireless Review. The numbers themselves come from the "Strategis Group", whoever that is.The article deals with cloning and is kind of interesting. It claims that AMPS cloning is so relatively easy that no one is really bothering with digital systems yet, and that CDMA network builders in particular are not taking the necessary precautions because they haven't been forced to..The article goes on to state that with GSM. protection is built implicitly right into the system. Sounds like the old Omnipoint rap. Perhaps someone of technical bent could comment. Here's the numbers: 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 800MHZAmps 41.2 50.1 52.2 50.9 45.9 37.4 27.3 800MHZCDMA .03 0.2 1.0 2.1 4.2 7.0 12.2 800MHZTDMA 1.84 3.4 5.5 8.1 11.8 18.2 23.6 1.9GHZCDMA 0 1.2 6.0 12.1 18.7 24.2 27.6 1.9GHZGSM .3 1.0 3.3 6.3 9.6 12.1 13.7 1.9GHZTDMA .6 2.6 4.9 7.1 8.7 9.6 other PCS .3 .7 1.7 2.6 3.3 Total Subs 43.5 56.6 70.8 85.4 99.2 110.5 117.8 These are numbers for the U.S. 117 million total wireless subscribers by 2002 is about a 30% penetration rate for every man woman and child in the country,a doubling in the next four years, maybe a little optimistic but who knows.Looks like 40 mil CDMA subs by 2002. Would rates in Japan be similar, or are they in too much of a funk? It's off subject but I was foolishly a bit surprised that the Tankin Survey which triggered a nice selloff in Japan and Asia overnight was cause for such celebration over here. LU probably gained the equivalent of QCOM's entire mkt cap today. What me worry? Anyway I believe there'll be no GSM or TDMA to contend with over there,although I might need a knuckle slap for that one......Hope this helps. All the best.........Dave

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